Will My Kidneys Fail? Learn How To Predict Your Kidney Health Future
Kidney disease raises a fundamental question for every patient: "Now that I have kidney disease, how long will my kidneys keep functioning?"
In this video, I'll explain a simple way to estimate this time period. We'll discuss a couple of equations, and in the end, I'll share how early detection of kidney disease can be good news for you.
Greetings from Dr. Waiz of Expert Clinic in Lahore, Pakistan.
When a person is diagnosed with kidney disease, the first thing that comes to mind is dialysis. Often, doctors will quickly suggest that dialysis is necessary. This may be due to the fact that many patients visit the doctor at a very late stage of the disease, leading to a widespread belief about the immediate need for dialysis.
However, the bottom line is this: as soon as someone is diagnosed with kidney disease, they start hearing the word "dialysis" from all directions.
Let's put aside these misconceptions for a moment and look at things logically. We will try to understand how you can calculate when chronic kidney disease (CKD) might progress to complete kidney failure.
When diagnosed with CKD, I always recommend that your creatinine levels remain stable for at least three months. For example, if your creatinine levels rise to 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7, this could be due to various reasons like medication, high protein intake, or excessive exercise. That's why doctors check your creatinine levels continuously for three months to confirm if they stay elevated.
During these three months, a full evaluation is also conducted to check if you have diabetes, high blood pressure, or any other condition that could cause kidney disease. After confirming all this over three months, the diagnosis is finalized: it's chronic kidney disease, which cannot be reversed. The focus now is on managing the condition effectively.
What Should You Keep in Mind When Diagnosed with CKD?
Let's imagine your or your patient's estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is 50. This eGFR gradually declines as we age because our kidneys become slightly weaker. However, since our kidneys have enough function to compensate, a person without kidney disease usually doesn’t notice a decline. Even in a healthy individual, the kidney function decreases slightly each year.
For a healthy person with no history of kidney disease, the eGFR might decrease by about 1 mL per minute per year or even less. Given that the typical eGFR value is around 125, this means that after 70 to 80 years, it might fall below 60. This is why chronic kidney disease or significant kidney damage rarely appears in healthy individuals.
Understanding eGFR Decline in CKD Patients
For CKD patients, eGFR declines every year as well, but it happens at different rates. We can classify CKD patients into three major groups:
- Ideal Group: These patients manage their kidney disease very well. Their eGFR decreases by less than 2 mL per minute per year.
- Poorly Managed Group: These patients have a decline in eGFR between 2 to 5 mL per minute per year. This suggests poor management of the disease.
- Rapid Decline Group: In this group, the eGFR drops by more than 5 mL per minute per year. This is termed rapid declining kidney function.
How to Use These Numbers Practically
Let’s take a practical example. Consider a 50-year-old man with Stage 3 CKD and an eGFR of 50. If this individual manages their kidney disease well, their eGFR should decline by no more than 2 mL per minute per year. This means that they might not need dialysis for about 20 years, assuming the eGFR drops steadily by 2 mL per year.
However, if their eGFR decreases at a faster rate, say 4 mL per minute per year, it will only take 10 years to reach the dialysis stage. This example illustrates the importance of good disease management.
For those who never consider managing their kidney disease and live carelessly, their eGFR might decline by 5 mL per minute per year or even faster. These patients often progress to needing dialysis within a few years.
Conclusion
Managing kidney disease effectively is crucial. Patients should monitor their condition closely, manage their lifestyle, and follow medical advice to slow the progression of the disease. Understanding how to calculate and interpret eGFR decline can help patients plan and manage their kidney health better.
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